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Regular readers of The Controversy are fully aware that I have stated throughout Campaign 2016 - even during the Primary season...where Donald Trump has been winning - that I'm still not sure - when all is said and done - that Trump will end up being the Republican Party's nominee for President. And I continue to stick to that thinking.
Let's recap. I called Donald Trump a "superstar" in June 2015 when the current Republican front-runner announced his candidacy. Unlike most other journalists, I'm on record by saying that nobody should write off Trump as someone who will go away quickly...while most others had thought he'd be a "flash in the pan" and gone in a matter of weeks. It is true, however, that I didn't think Trump would get as far as he's gotten to this point, but that being said, I still believe it will be difficult for Trump to land the GOP nomination. I simply don't think there are enough Republican voters in the remaining Primary states who will cast their ballots for Trump and, thus, give him the 1,237 delegates that are needed to lock down the nomination.
And remember - or in case you don't know - if Trump doesn't win the nomination on the first ballot at the July Republican convention in Cleveland, Ohio...then it's open season and fair game for any other candidate - or, for that matter - any other Republican - to become the nominee. Come the second ballot - if that's what happens - Ted Cruz or John Kasich could be chosen by
the delegates. Or...in an open, brokered convention... someone else could be drafted...such as Mitt Romney...Paul Ryan...Newt Gingrich...or even Jeb Bush, to name a few possibilities. That's right. Election 2016 could still possibly end up being a battle between a Clinton and a Bush. And I bet you thought nothing stranger...or weirder...could happen with this Presidential political cycle.
And what happens if Donald Trump has the most delegates come the convention, but he has not secured the 1,237 necessary to seal the deal and become the Republican nominee? Will Trump - metaphorically speaking - take his marbles...go home...and return to his multi-billion-dollar business? Or will Trump try to buy the Presidency...spend hundreds of millions of dollars of his own money...and run as an Independent?
Or, let's say 1,237 delegates do wind up in Donald Trump's column...which, I suppose, could happen. Then - as I have written in the past - a third party Conservative candidate would definitely emerge. And my opinion is backed up by two recent polls. After all, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll...61% of Republicans say Trump is damaging the GOP brand and is "harmful" to his party's image. And an ABC News poll indicates that two-thirds of Republican voters would seriously consider a third party candidate if Trump gets the nomination. Therefore, there is no doubt in my mind that Conservative Republicans are - right now - shopping for a candidate to oppose Donald Trump...and the Democratic nominee, who undoubtedly will be Hillary Clinton.
Let's take a good look at some possible scenarios.
A November 8th competition that includes Donald Trump as the GOP nominee and a third-party Conservative candidate...will split the Republican votes and Hillary Clinton takes the election with slam dunk after slam dunk. And as a staunch supporter of the former Secretary Of State...I love it!
But...if Donald Trump loses the nomination on the first ballot at the convention...and Ted Cruz or John Kasich is nominated...then again the Republican votes get divided because Trump followers stand directly behind him as an Independent...or they stay home on Election Day and don't vote at all if Trump decides to say "the hell with it." Meanwhile, Cruz and Kasich backers come together and vote for whomever is the GOP nominee. The ticket just might turn out to be either Cruz/Kasich or Kasich/Cruz. In any event...Hillary Clinton wins the election with touchdown after touchdown. And I love it!
Now what if Donald Trump loses the nomination, but delegates can't join forces and agree on either Ted Cruz or John Kasich...that is when they will embrace and ultimately draft someone such as Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Newt Gingrich, Jeb
Bush or someone else...and not as a third party Conservative candidate...but as the actual Republican nominee. And if Trump continues to stay in the race...but as an Independent...then that too will destroy the GOP...because many Cruz and Kasich supporters will decide not to vote at all on Election Day...as they will feel cheated. As for Trump...he will only have his endorsers. Or...Trump gets fed up and drops out completely. Whatever happens, Hillary Clinton hits a grand slam home run. And I love it!
And - if for some strange reason - in the unlikely possibility - that General Election 2016 actually proves to be...normal - (I doubt it, but let's say it does) - and it's just a match between Democrat Hillary Clinton against Republican Donald Trump...then the anti-Trump movement puts the whammy on the real estate and construction industry mogul...and many Republicans protest the election by not voting...and Secretary Clinton crosses the finish line first...and is elected the 45th President of the United States. And I love it!
The problem with Republicans is that they needed to try to stop Donald Trump long ago. But stopping a "speeding bullet" or a "powerful locomotive" can only be done by Superman - and only in the comics, on TV and in the movies. So to get the runaway train - that is Donald Trump - to come to a screeching halt...it will be up to delegates to derail him...or convention Republicans - and Republicans nationwide - will need to wear bulletproof vests. Because this "speeding bullet" will kill the Republican Party. As a Democrat and an advocate of Hillary Clinton...I will love it!
And that's The Controversy for today.
I'm Gary B. Duglin.
"We'll talk again."
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Photo credits: nbcnews.com (Mr. Donald Trump), wikimedia.org (Senator Ted Cruz), mrctv.org and post-gazette.com (Governor John Kasich), dailymail.co.uk and Associated Press (former Governor Jeb Bush), the guardian.com and cnn.com (former Secretary Of State Hillary Clinton #1), mormonheadlines.com (former Governor Mitt Romney), csmonitor.com (Speaker Of The House Paul Ryan), flaglerlive.com (former Speaker Of The House Newt Gingrich) and the root.com (former Secretary Of State Hillary Clinton #2)
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